Forecast of long-term dynamics of dangerous hydrological and geomorphological processes in river valleys under the influence of climate change and runoff based on multivariate probability models. Expected changes justified stable combinations of factors and characteristics of river-bed processes, although not exclude other options speakers. Stable relations are manifested in a long period of time unequal reaction of the separate channel forms or their complexes on similar changes in the hydrological regime. Depending on the combination of factors of channel processes (geological, geomorphological, topological) channel fragment - local form or its complex, remains stable, morphologically changed or converted to other morphodynamic type. The allocation of relatively isolated river fragments with unambiguous, although asynchronous dynamic of local forms in response to changes in meteorological conditions - flood-channel systems (FCS) reduces the uncertainty of the channel processes forecast. The uncertainty for separate channel forms is associated with the difficulty of accounting and formalization of influence of adjacent plots of course, interrelated them morphodynamic features channel process. The level of ideas and actual knowledge of the regularities of structure, distribution, dynamics of floodplain-channel complexes in different geographical regions is insufficient for the construction of theoretical models explaining the specifics of behavior of objects in a long-term period.
The provision of actual or estimated information on the hydrological characteristics of the flow, geological and geomorphological structure of the GOK and the availability of software tools, their systematization allows to approach to the modeling and study of forecasts through the creation of information-analytical systems (IAS). The core of the information-analytical system forms the base of spatial data, integrating information on floodplain of channel complexes, multi-temporal scale and thematic maps of the region, evidence of hydro meteorological observations. Shell base is metadata and methodological recommendations on using a software-based GIS packages. The principle of construction is implemented in a pilot project of the IAS to the upper Dnieper and upper Volga - regions with high diversity of the runoff and channel processes conditions, long developed and densely populated. Main results of the project - the patterns and determinants of long-term dynamics of the GOK, the forecast for different scenarios of climate change in Eastern Europe.
Long-term dynamics FCS on large and medium rivers is determined by changes in climate and runoff, geological and geomorphological structure of the valley, the hydrological characteristics of the area. The same changes of circumstances and characteristics of the flow in the Western part of the East-European Plain combined with different types of portable speakers, grounded theory factors downstream process. Types of dynamics are a necessary element of the forecast of channel processes, limiting unlikely direction and speed changes; used as the basis zonation by the degree of risk associated with hazardous channel processes.